The private car is under attack: since the late 2000s, the European car industry has been subject to turbulences and storms. Will the next decades mean rain or shine for the industry? Let's take a closer look at the weather for 2030. When I was sixteen, getting your driver's license was the dream of my generation. At eighteen, my dream came true. Now, I am twenty-four and would even sell my driver's license on eBay. One could say I have changed, but I'm not the only one. The European car industry's prospects have changed too. For the 18th consecutive month in Europe, demand for new passenger cars is on the decline (source: ACEA)
Even more troubling, mobility is now associated with smartphones, not cars.
People are looking for agile and dynamic services, not for rigidly designed products. The automobile is quietly becoming functional more than anything else, made obsolete by new technologies. This changing world holds major challenges for car manufacturers:
- Mobility services: public transportation services are becoming more relevant and interesting since they integrate bike & carsharing programs and provide real time information about traffic. Peer-to-peer car rental and ridesharing are enabling car owners to make money with their car, therefore attacking the model of owning a "private car".
- Connected cars: software is playing an increasingly important role in cars (we could say the same thing for music, books, education and so on) and is generally not provided by the car manufacturers themselves. This means that car manufacturers have to deal with many different development cycles as well as a growing number of stakeholders (for example: telcos, road infrastructures, city governments).
- All-knowing consumers: with the rise of social networks and detailed online reviews, maintaining an asymmetrical level of information can no longer be a strategy for companies. But the power of all-knowing consumers is not limited to reviews.
- Tools such as 3D printers and open source hardware allow groups of "consumers" to build all sort of objects, including cars.
To complete the panorama, we shall not forget the increasing urbanization and environmental pressures on the automotive industry. This brings me to the key provocative question, which I examined in my master's thesis: will car manufacturers still exist in 2030? In challenging two common assumptions ("The XXIst century will be collaborative or will not exist at all" and "The XXIst century will be open or will not exist at all"), I designed the following four possible scenarios (or "weather forecasts") of the future of the car industry:
4 Scenarios for the European Car Industry
Baby you can drive my car
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Ms. Sharing Economy & Mr. Car Manufacturers, a lovely couple (credits Kolin Toney)[/caption] Interview with Fransezca Piik, CEO of BMWXY, a flourishing mobility company, once car manufacturer.BabyYouCanDriveMyCar magazine:
So Fransezca, your company decided to turn its business model upside down and have become more of a shared-mobility company rather than a car manufacturer? Fransezca Piik: Exactly. Around 2015, we started to deeply transform our company and acquired ridesharing and P2P car rental companies to shift our model towards services, which now account for the majority of our revenues, but not exclusively. The other major change lies behind our focus on empowering our community of BMWXYers. We actually encourage them to "hack" the vehicles and reward them for it.
I'm waiting for THE car
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The sharing economy deals with the devil (credits MMRMAGGAWT)[/caption] Interview with Ezekiel Grinpeas, CEO of ToyotAye, one of the authorized mobility companies in Europe. ImWaitingForTheCar magazine: How did you manage to become an authorized mobility company? Ezekiel Grinpeas:Well, after the 2016 heat wave (more than 600,000 people dead), Europe had to make some drastic decisions such as forbidding privately owned cars in urban areas and controlling mobility. Our options were basically becoming an authorized mobility company, or die. So we acquired ridesharing marketplaces, peer-to-peer car rental and collaborative manufacturing companies that were able to provide us with the know-how to become a mobility company while being compliant with European norms (n.b. CO2 emissions <10g/km/person).
Artificial paradises
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R.I.P. Sharing Economy (credits Mikhail Evstafiev)[/caption] Interview with Irina Fracking, CEO of Faurd, a leading self-driving car manufacturer. ArtificialParadises magazine: How did Faurd manage to overcome the terrible crisis that hit the automotive industry during the 2010s? Irina Fracking: During the 2010s, everybody was talking about rising oil prices, green cars and the sharing economy... let me tell you one thing, it was nothing but bullshit for ecological hipsters! Luckily, governments finally understood that and are now letting us focus on our core activity: designing the most secure, entertaining and technologically advanced cars to provide the best experience to our customers!
Where's Chevy (Chevrolet)?
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R.I.P. Car Manufacturers (credits Plug In America)[/caption] Interview with Ernaist Encrassé, CEO of Peujoh, an ex-leading car manufacturer that went bankrupt in 2026.WheresChevy magazine:
If you do not mind, could you tell us how Peujoh ended up in bankruptcy? Ernaist Encrassé: We were here since the beginning of the history, I mean, we thought nothing could happen... Now, I realize... We were just blind horses, unable to see those sharing economy startups were on to something, you know ... ridesharing, peer-to-peer car rental, collaborative manufacturing...They rule the mobility space now and we are nothing...(cries) Which scenario is most likely to happen? Actually, that does not really matter. The bottom line is that there is a challenge at hand, for the traditional industry as well as sharing economy startups. Someone needs to take on this challenge and be the priest marrying Ms. Sharing Economy and Mr. Car Manufacturers in a beautiful cathedral. What do you think of these scenarios? Feel free to share your views and your weather forecasts in the comments. And if you liked the scenarios and would like to help develop them further, you can do this right here
The Future of Mobility at OuiShare Fest
Changes in the mobility industry and the concept of intermodal transport were also a topic at this month's OuiShare Fest. You can watch the full panel about shared mobility below, featuring Markus Barnikel (Carpooling), Mar Alarcon (Social Car), Guillaume Verhaeghe (Djengo), Aashild Stav (Utilisacteurs) & Francesca Pick (OuiShare, Moderator) http://youtu.be/pCaVBSZDMwY Guest post written by David Chapuis.
Passionate about social businesses using disruptive innovation to enhance traditional industries and to regalvanize local economies. This article is based on David Chapuis' master thesis, "Impacts of collaborative consumption on traditional industries: scenarios for the European car industry". Cover picture credits: Hsing Wei